drones in warfare

The Evolution of Modern Combat: The Rise of Drones in Warfare

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Drones in warfare have fundamentally altered how combat is conducted in the 21st century. What began as simple reconnaissance tools has evolved into sophisticated weapons systems that now dominate battlefields from Ukraine to the Middle East. Modern militaries are racing to produce thousands of these unmanned aircraft each month, while new technologies like AI-guided swarms and long-range strike capabilities promise even more dramatic changes ahead. The implications extend far beyond tactical advantages.

How Drones Transformed Modern Battlefield Tactics

Photo By Lycksele-Nord

Since drones first appeared over battlefields in Ukraine and the Middle East, they have fundamentally reshaped how modern armies fight and survive. Drone tactics now account for 70–80% of battlefield casualties, making them the deadliest weapons in current conflicts. Ukrainian quadrotor drones drop grenades directly into Russian tank hatches with pinpoint accuracy, while dragon drones spew burning thermite into trenches.

This battlefield evolution has forced armies to abandon traditional large-scale maneuvers. Tanks and armored vehicles have become easy targets under constant drone visibility. Troops now move in small numbers under cover, as troop transport proves too dangerous.

The result is a dramatic shift: offensive operations since 2023 feature small territorial gains at high cost, fundamentally altering conventional warfare doctrine. Ukraine formed the world’s first dedicated drone military branch in 2024, symbolizing this strategic transformation.

Non-state actors have also embraced drone warfare, with attacks rising from 6 to 91 groups between 2018 and 2023, demonstrating a 1,400% increase in adoption.

Ukraine and Russia’s Unprecedented Drone Production Race

While battlefield drone tactics have reshaped how soldiers fight, an equally dramatic transformation is occurring in the factories and workshops producing these weapons.

Ukraine now manufactures millions of drone units annually through its domestic industry, providing essential battlefield intelligence to frontline commanders. Russia has responded by establishing a dedicated military unit for uncrewed systems with 80,000 servicemen, planning expansion to 165,500 by 2026 and nearly 210,000 by 2030. Russian factories have stabilized Shahed drone production at roughly 5,000 units monthly since May 2025.

This industrial competition extends beyond manufacturing volumes into drone diplomacy, as Ukraine partners with Western nations to expand interceptor drone production. The UK Defence Minister announced Octopus interceptor drone production to begin in January 2025, aiming to produce thousands monthly at a low cost compared to Russian drones.

Both countries now organize strike campaigns around factory production rhythms rather than coordinated military planning.

Shahed drones maintain hit rates between 15 and 20 percent, reflecting improvements in both strikes and Ukrainian air defense interceptions.

Ukrainian naval drones have targeted Russian warships, demonstrating the expanding role of unmanned systems beyond land operations.

FPV Drones: The Weapon Reshaping Infantry Combat

First-person video (FPV) drones have fundamentally altered how infantry units engage enemies on the modern battlefield.

These small, agile weapons deliver precision strikes against armored vehicles, high-value personnel, and fortified positions at ranges up to 10 kilometers. Their tactical advantages include low production costs, mass deployment capability, and maneuverability that bypasses traditional obstacles.

Ukrainian forces have increasingly relied on inexpensive first-person-view drones to compensate for manpower shortages on the battlefield.

However, operational limitations remain significant. Only one in ten sorties achieves precision strikes, and electronic warfare can disrupt control signals. FPV drones are also vulnerable to electronic countermeasures, which can jam control signals or disable navigation systems. Weather conditions and lack of night-vision capabilities further limit their operational effectiveness.

FPV drones excel in four critical roles:

  1. Engaging weak points on armored vehicles with targeted explosives
  2. Eliminating snipers and personnel through windows or small openings
  3. Providing close air support to advancing infantry formations
  4. Conducting reconnaissance and surveillance missions in real-time

These capabilities are reshaping infantry tactics across modern conflicts. Ukraine has scaled its FPV drone deployments to tens of thousands monthly, supported by civilian-military innovation networks. Infantry units now deploy kinetic interception systems, such as the DroneHunter Varta utilising physical interception rather than electronic warfare, addressing scenarios where jamming proves ineffective or risky, as last-line defenses against incoming FPV drone threats at close range.

Long-Range Strike Drones Hitting Targets Over 1,500 Km Away

Beyond close-range battlefield applications, drones now strike strategic targets at distances exceeding 1,500 kilometers.

Iran’s Shahed-136, measuring 3.5 meters long with a 200-kilogram weight, achieves ranges between 970 and 2,500 kilometers using a simple piston engine. Russia’s Geran-2, fundamentally the same platform, regularly flies indirect routes at 5,000 to 8,000 feet altitude in Ukraine operations. The Houthi Sammad-4 claims 2,000-kilometer range while carrying strategic payloads up to 8 kilograms.

Ukrainian forces counter with the Liutyi drone, reaching 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers with 75-kilogram payloads.

These systems cost dramatically less than cruise missiles—some Houthi variants under $15,000 each—making long range capabilities accessible to non-state actors and smaller militaries worldwide.

US Military Drone Funding Priorities for 2026

The Pentagon’s FY 2026 budget request reveals a dramatic shift in military priorities, dedicating $13.4 billion specifically to autonomous systems for the first time as a standalone funding category.

This drone funding increase demonstrates how unmanned platforms now drive military procurement strategy across all services. The Navy alone requested $5.3 billion for unmanned systems, representing a $2.2 billion jump from the previous year.

Key allocations include:

  1. $9.4 billion for unmanned aerial vehicles and remotely-operated aircraft
  2. $3.1 billion dedicated to counter-unmanned aerial systems across all branches
  3. $1.7 billion for water-based autonomous systems
  4. $1.2 billion for integration software serving as a “central brain”

The US Marine Corps plans to acquire 10,000 new drones and is progressing the XQ-58A Valkyrie, shown below, as a permanent program.
The XQ-58 is built to serve as a loyal wingman, controlled by a parent aircraft to perform roles such as scouting, defensive engagement, or taking incoming fire. It incorporates stealth features, including a trapezoidal fuselage with chined edges, a V-tail, and an S-shaped air intake. The XQ-58 can operate within swarms of drones, either under direct pilot control or autonomously.

XQ-58A Valkyrie by 88 Air Base Wing Public Affairs

Autonomous Swarms and AI: The Next Evolution in Drone Warfare

As militaries race to deploy thousands of drones simultaneously, artificial intelligence now enables swarms that communicate and adapt without constant human control. Swarm intelligence mimics bird flocks, allowing units to share real-time data and react collectively.

Initiatives using massed drones are being progressed around the world. The Pentagon’s Replicator initiative aims to deploy thousands of autonomous drones by 2026. The US Swarm Defense program trains troops using thousands of drones in realistic combat scenarios, preparing soldiers for coordinated autonomous threats.

Sweden’s Saab has developed software that lets one operator control up to 100 drones at once, and was successfully tested in March 2025. Autonomous coordination allows swarms to shift roles mid-mission, conducting reconnaissance or overwhelming defenses through sheer numbers.

However, true AI swarming requires resilient communications and electronic warfare resistance—capabilities many current systems still lack.

Why Robot Armies Will Define Combat Operations by 2026

While swarm technology promises coordinated strikes from above, ground-based robots are already transforming how militaries hold territory and fight battles.

Ukraine demonstrated this shift when a single armed UGV (unmanned ground vehicle) maintained a front-line position for 45 days, requiring maintenance only every 48 hours. This deployment proves machines can replace humans in dangerous positions along the 1,000-kilometer front.

Military investments reflect this change:

  1. Israel has allocated half its NIS 350 billion budget to robotics across air, sea, and land forces
  2. U.S. Marines have awarded $231.5 million for robot wingman programs partnering drones with F-35 fighters, such as the XQ-58A, above.
  3. The Army created an entirely new AI/ML officer career field for managing battlefield robotics.
  4. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry exceeded all UGV supply targets despite wartime constraints

These developments raise urgent questions about robot ethics and combat strategy as autonomous systems reshape warfare’s fundamental nature.

Conclusion

Drones have fundamentally altered how nations fight wars, with countries like Ukraine and Russia producing thousands monthly while investing billions in autonomous systems. FPV drones now dominate infantry engagements, and long-range models strike targets over 1,500 kilometers away. As AI-powered swarms advance and military budgets prioritize unmanned systems, robot armies will likely heavily influence combat operations in 2026. This technological shift raises critical questions about warfare’s future and humanity’s role in it.

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